$25 - $35 US gold premium signals tightness - hurts BTC now, helps "digital gold" later.

Gold cracks reveal shifting safe-haven flows into crypto.

By: Mr. High Score, February 14, 2026

GOLD'S GLOBAL FRACTURE: WHY US PRICES ARE OUTPACING THE WORLD - AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR CRYPTO

In the high-stakes arena of global finance, gold has long been the ultimate unifier—a borderless asset whose price stays remarkably consistent from New York to London to Shanghai. But right now, in mid-February 2026, that unity is cracking. A persistent and unusual price spread has emerged, with US benchmarks commanding a $25–$35 per ounce premium over major international markets. It's a rare dislocation that's sparking debate among traders, analysts, and stackers alike: Is this a fleeting arbitrage glitch, or a deeper signal of market stress?

As gold hovers around $5,000–$5,050 per ounce after a blistering rally that pushed it above $5,500–$5,600 in late January, this divergence isn't just academic. It reflects real-world imbalances in physical supply and demand—and it has subtle but meaningful implications for the cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin continues to trade around $69,000–$70,000.

THE SPREAD IN FOCUS: US GOLD AT A PREMIUM

Let's break down the numbers as of February 13–14, 2026:

• COMEX (New York/US benchmark): Approximately $5,010–$5,046 per ounce for active futures.

• LBMA (London): Around $4,978–$5,000 per ounce.

• Hong Kong and Shanghai: $4,986–$5,022 per ounce, with occasional premiums in Asia reversing to discounts amid volatility.

• Mumbai (India local): Roughly $4,976 per ounce, reflecting softer retail demand.

This $25–$35 gap isn't trivial. In a normal, efficient market, arbitrageurs would quickly exploit it—buying "cheap" gold in London or Asia, shipping it to the US, and selling at the premium. Transport, insurance, and refining costs typically cap such spreads at $1–$10 per ounce. Persistent gaps this wide are anomalies, often signaling physical tightness or regional demand surges.

Recent history shows similar stresses. In 2025, tariff fears caused the Exchange for Physical (EFP) spread—between COMEX futures and London spot—to blow out to $60 per ounce, the widest since the 2020 COVID panic. COMEX vaults swelled to record levels as metal flowed in, but much of it later migrated to London. Now, in 2026, the dynamic has flipped somewhat: Strong US institutional and hedging demand (tied to ongoing geopolitical risks, fiscal concerns, and potential policy shifts) is keeping American prices elevated, while Asia cools off.

In India, high prices have deterred buyers, leading to local discounts of $8–$12 per ounce at times. China, a massive physical buyer, is seeing flatter premiums ahead of Lunar New Year, with retail and jewelry demand softening after the earlier frenzy. The result? A fragmented market where the US acts as a magnet for physical gold, creating logistical bottlenecks in delivery and refining.

This isn't the stuff of conspiracy theories about "paper vs. physical" manipulation—though those whispers always circulate. It's more about classic supply-demand frictions: uneven global flows, elevated transport risks, and the sheer volume of institutional buying in dollar-denominated hubs like COMEX.

COMEX and LBMA Gold Pricing: The Two Pillars of Global Gold Valuation -  Bullion Trading LLC

The Exchange for Physical (EFP) spread between COMEX and London has spiked in periods of stress, as seen in this historical chart. The 2026 normalization follows 2025's tariff-driven volatility, but regional divergences persist.

WHAT'S DRIVING THE DISLOCATION?

Several factors are at play:

1. US-Centric Demand Surge: ETFs, vaults, and hedgers are scooping up physical metal amid uncertainty—tariffs, debt dynamics, and de-dollarization trends. Central banks globally added over 1,000 tonnes annually in recent years, but US institutions are particularly active in futures and delivery.

2. Asian Demand Fatigue: Record prices have cooled retail and jewelry buying in China and India. While central bank purchases remain robust (especially from emerging markets), the high-price environment has created a temporary overhang.

3. Logistics and Arbitrage Friction: Shipping gold isn't instantaneous. Delays in refining, customs, or even insurance amid heightened risks can sustain spreads. The post-2025 inventory shifts (from COMEX to London) have left pockets of tightness.

Gold's broader rally—up over 75% year-over-year in some metrics—has amplified these issues. After January's historic highs and a sharp pullback (down 8–12% in late January on COMEX), the metal is rebounding on safe-haven flows, but the recovery is uneven across borders.

HSBC lifts long-term gold forecasts but trims 2026 average, sees $5,000 upside risk | investingLive

Gold's 2026 path: A steep climb to all-time highs above $5,500, followed by a volatile pullback and partial recovery. Shallow corrections highlight underlying strength.

THE CRYPTO CONNECTION: HEADWIND NOW, TAILWIND LATER

For crypto enthusiasts—especially Bitcoin maximalists who view it as "digital gold"—this gold market quirk isn't isolated. It indirectly influences capital flows, sentiment, and macro narratives.

Short-Term: A Liquidity Drain and Risk-Off Tilt

The US gold premium underscores intense physical demand for the "real thing." When investors flock to tangible safe-havens—gold ETFs, allocated bars, or COMEX deliveries—they're pulling capital away from higher-volatility assets like crypto.

• Recent Correlations: Bitcoin and gold have shown negative short-term correlation in 2026. As gold surged on uncertainty, BTC consolidated, trading more like a growth/tech play (correlated to equities) than a pure hedge. The BTC/gold ratio has climbed, with 1 BTC now equivalent to about 13–14 ounces of gold (BTC at ~$69k vs. gold at ~$5k).

• Spillover Effects: Tokenized gold products on-chain (e.g., in DeFi) have faced selling pressure during crypto dips, as leveraged positions unwind. Broader risk aversion—fueled by gold's "bunker" status—keeps BTC in a grind, hovering near $70k after earlier tests below $60k.

In essence, gold is winning the immediate defensive trade. Physical tightness in the US amplifies this, as institutions prioritize proven reserves over speculative digital ones.